Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Diagnosing Employment Growth
Across Illinois Counties
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2021 and 2021
Employment Growth by County
Illinois:
2010-2021 = 0.51%
2021 = 3.07%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of employment growth across all of Illinois' 102 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Illinois Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the employment growth of Illinois' 102 counties over the year (2021) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2021). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2021 and 2021
Employment Growth by County
white dot
Illinois:
2010-2021 = 0.51%
2021 = 3.07%
This figure displays the 102 counties of Illinois as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2021), and the horizontal axis representing the employment growth rate for the near-term (2021).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 0.51%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 0.51% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (0.51%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 16 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2021, while 86 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 28 counties whose most recent (2021) employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (3.07%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 74 counties whose employment growth over 2021 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 102 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2021) and near-term (2021) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 0.51% over 2010-2021 and 3.07% over 2021:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are the seven counties whose average annual employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (0.51%) and near-term (3.07%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are the nine counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (0.51%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Illinois average (3.07%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are the twenty-one counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (0.51%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (3.07%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are the sixty-five counties whose average annual employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (0.51%) and near-term (3.07%).
   
 
Summary of Illinois' 102 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(3.07%)
Above
(3.07%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(0.51%)
9
7
16
Below
(0.51%)
65
21
86
 
74
28
102
 
   
Leading Counties
2021 vs. 2010-2021 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Illinois:
2010-2021 = 0.51%
2021 = 3.07%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Illinois counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Illinois' average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2021 = 0.51%) as well as near-term (2021 = 3.07%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2021 as noted in the table below.
Of Illinois' 102 counties, just 7 (7%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Slipping Counties
2021 vs. 2010-2021 Averages
Slipping Counties
white dot
Illinois:
2010-2021 = 0.51%
2021 = 3.07%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 9 Illinois counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2021 = 0.51%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2021 = 3.07%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2021.
Only 9 ( 9%) of Illinois' 102 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Gaining Counties
2021 vs. 2010-2021 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Illinois:
2010-2021 = 0.51%
2021 = 3.07%
This figure shows the distribution of the 21 Illinois counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2021 = 0.51%), while they outpaced Illinois' average near-term (2021 = 3.07%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2021.
Of Illinois' 102 counties, 21% (21) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Lagging Counties
2021 vs. 2010-2021 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Illinois:
2010-2021 = 0.51%
2021 = 3.07%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 65 Illinois counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2021 = 0.51%) as well as near-term (2021 = 3.07%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2021.
64% of Illinois' counties, 65 of 102, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
   
 
Illinois
Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2021
 
2021
 
 
Leading Counties
 
12
0.76
 
26
3.21
3,476,211
 
9
0.81
 
16
3.75
783,892
 
7
1.01
 
23
3.31
29,451
 
8
0.86
 
6
4.50
278,070
 
1
2.47
 
1
7.30
47,484
 
10
0.80
 
3
5.22
13,576
 
3
2.27
 
12
4.09
350,542
Slipping Counties
 
5
1.73
 
102
-4.91
21,478
 
2
2.44
 
58
1.71
5,402
 
11
0.78
 
87
-0.47
4,663
 
14
0.74
 
37
2.62
9,038
 
4
2.23
 
33
2.86
27,913
 
6
1.26
 
47
2.12
3,653
 
15
0.74
 
69
1.25
134,122
 
13
0.74
 
43
2.46
7,507
 
16
0.70
 
52
1.93
37,152
Gaining Counties
 
87
-1.19
 
11
4.10
1,624
 
67
-0.73
 
28
3.08
7,071
 
55
-0.47
 
22
3.33
13,233
 
99
-2.21
 
8
4.26
1,174
 
61
-0.52
 
27
3.11
2,153
 
19
0.39
 
4
4.90
4,601
 
20
0.35
 
10
4.24
8,154
 
65
-0.69
 
2
6.60
11,735
 
18
0.40
 
18
3.51
471,588
 
41
-0.19
 
9
4.25
53,505
 
27
0.12
 
7
4.31
140,267
 
98
-1.84
 
21
3.39
4,727
 
26
0.14
 
25
3.23
6,078
 
64
-0.68
 
14
3.87
1,314
 
23
0.29
 
5
4.57
2,611
 
35
-0.07
 
24
3.26
126,250
 
40
-0.18
 
15
3.77
120,464
 
83
-0.98
 
17
3.68
2,763
 
43
-0.23
 
13
3.89
7,977
 
47
-0.30
 
19
3.50
156,360
 
24
0.21
 
20
3.47
16,039
Lagging Counties
 
42
-0.22
 
59
1.65
41,461
 
102
-4.50
 
101
-3.27
1,539
 
49
-0.39
 
90
-0.69
6,623
 
72
-0.81
 
60
1.55
15,827
 
48
-0.33
 
36
2.66
6,726
 
89
-1.27
 
97
-1.87
7,030
 
21
0.33
 
31
2.92
130,622
 
94
-1.45
 
72
1.19
13,039
 
34
-0.06
 
41
2.50
7,094
 
50
-0.39
 
98
-1.98
6,880
 
30
0.04
 
29
3.01
16,522
 
29
0.07
 
62
1.49
30,471
 
92
-1.39
 
77
0.80
9,733
 
36
-0.13
 
61
1.50
49,921
 
17
0.43
 
45
2.43
11,209
 
91
-1.38
 
91
-1.35
3,292
 
58
-0.50
 
34
2.82
8,594
 
33
-0.02
 
30
2.97
6,839
 
81
-0.96
 
51
1.96
11,647
 
101
-2.86
 
86
-0.18
1,623
 
84
-1.05
 
65
1.37
4,291
 
80
-0.96
 
32
2.87
6,961
 
32
0.00
 
78
0.80
20,150
 
85
-1.15
 
99
-2.32
11,870
 
79
-0.95
 
74
1.06
33,664
 
31
0.00
 
73
1.17
24,451
 
44
-0.25
 
50
2.00
3,816
 
28
0.08
 
82
0.11
54,557
 
90
-1.32
 
94
-1.57
22,970
 
76
-0.84
 
100
-2.40
5,768
 
57
-0.49
 
80
0.40
16,171
 
82
-0.97
 
96
-1.75
17,133
 
60
-0.52
 
84
0.05
11,767
 
97
-1.71
 
70
1.20
14,490
 
38
-0.13
 
38
2.61
109,966
 
75
-0.83
 
71
1.20
57,969
 
62
-0.55
 
39
2.60
16,036
 
77
-0.85
 
75
0.88
17,541
 
68
-0.74
 
42
2.48
4,513
 
95
-1.54
 
79
0.66
4,553
 
93
-1.42
 
83
0.09
3,432
 
54
-0.46
 
44
2.45
5,235
 
78
-0.90
 
57
1.79
12,059
 
70
-0.78
 
85
-0.02
17,581
 
63
-0.63
 
81
0.26
21,676
 
25
0.15
 
35
2.67
123,019
 
66
-0.73
 
55
1.85
6,809
 
56
-0.49
 
63
1.48
6,713
 
100
-2.56
 
92
-1.43
2,136
 
59
-0.52
 
48
2.10
14,364
 
74
-0.82
 
95
-1.72
8,677
 
53
-0.44
 
56
1.82
87,867
 
86
-1.19
 
67
1.34
10,987
 
52
-0.44
 
66
1.37
1,855
 
37
-0.13
 
46
2.21
8,756
 
22
0.32
 
40
2.55
2,370
 
71
-0.78
 
54
1.86
23,555
 
96
-1.56
 
64
1.42
59,698
 
39
-0.15
 
53
1.92
7,183
 
73
-0.81
 
76
0.85
34,245
 
69
-0.77
 
88
-0.54
5,012
 
51
-0.44
 
93
-1.52
8,210
 
46
-0.27
 
49
2.01
9,090
 
88
-1.23
 
89
-0.61
6,803
 
45
-0.26
 
68
1.26
27,224
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.51
 
3.07
7,749,727
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.31
 
3.82
202,752,100
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_LSGL
 
   
Copyright © 2024. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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