Cape Girardeau MSA vs. Illinois Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Cape Girardeau MSA: 2022 Population = 98,275 2022 Percent of State = 0.03% Illinois: 2022 Population = 12,582,032 2022 Percent of U.S. = 3.78% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of the Cape Girardeau MSA with comparisons to Illinois and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing the Cape Girardeau MSA vs. Illinois' population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces the Cape Girardeau MSA's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, the Cape Girardeau MSA's population rose from 70,905 in 1969 to 98,275 in 2022, for a net gain of 27,370, or 38.60%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Illinois' annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Illinois' population rose from 11,039,000 in 1969 to 12,582,032 in 2022, for a net gain of 1,543,032, or 13.98%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows the Cape Girardeau MSA's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Illinois, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. The Cape Girardeau MSA's overall population growth was 38.60% over 1969-2022 outpaced Illinois' increase of 13.98%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Illinois Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of the Cape Girardeau MSA is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Illinois' statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Illinois' population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, the Cape Girardeau MSA's population totaled 0.64% of Illinois' population, while in 2022 it equated to 0.78% thereby yielding a +0.14% share-shift.
Cape Girardeau MSA Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of the Cape Girardeau MSA's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, the Cape Girardeau MSA's population grew at an annual rate of 0.62% over 1970-2022. The Cape Girardeau MSA recorded its highest growth in 1976 (2.96%) and posted its lowest growth in 1970 (-0.66%). In 2022, the Cape Girardeau MSA's population grew by 0.53% Cape Girardeau MSA Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some msas have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in the Cape Girardeau MSA's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, the Cape Girardeau MSA's annual population growth rate averaged 1.21%. It averaged 0.35% during the 1980s, 0.85% during the 1990s, 0.61% during the 2000s, 0.16% during the 2010s, 0.37% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for the Cape Girardeau MSA noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Illinois and the nation. As the chart reveals, the Cape Girardeau MSA's average annual population growth exceeded Illinois' average throughout the 1970s (1.21% vs. 0.34%), outgained Illinois' average in the 1980s (0.35% vs. -0.01%), registered above Illinois' average during the 1990s (0.85% vs. 0.80%), recorded above Illinois' average in the 2000s (0.61% vs. 0.35%), exceeded Illinois' average throughout the 2010s (0.16% vs. 0.04%), and recorded above Illinois' average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.37% vs. -0.70%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, the Cape Girardeau MSA recorded above the nation during the 1970s (1.21% vs. 1.10%), fell below the nation during the 1980s (0.35% vs. 0.95%), recorded underneath the nation in the 1990s (0.85% vs. 1.23%), trailed the nation during the 2000s (0.61% vs. 0.95%), posted below the nation during the 2010s (0.16% vs. 0.74%), and surpassed the nation over 2020-2022 (0.37% vs. 0.31%).
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