Menard County vs. Illinois Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Menard County: 2022 Population = 12,121 2022 Percent of State = 0.10% Illinois: 2022 Population = 12,582,032 2022 Percent of U.S. = 3.78% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Menard County with comparisons to Illinois and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Menard County vs. Illinois' population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks Menard County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Menard County's population rose from 9,664 in 1969 to 12,121 in 2022, for a net gain of 2,457, or 25.42%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Illinois' annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Illinois' population rose from 11,039,000 in 1969 to 12,582,032 in 2022, for a net gain of 1,543,032, or 13.98%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Menard County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Illinois, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Menard County's overall population growth was 25.42% over 1969-2022 outpaced Illinois' increase of 13.98%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Illinois Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of comparing the population growth of Menard County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Illinois' statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Illinois' population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Menard County's population totaled 0.09% of Illinois' population, while in 2022 it totaled 0.10% thereby yielding a +0.01% share-shift.
Menard County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Menard County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Menard County's population grew at an annual rate of 0.44% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 1980 (4.00%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1990 (-1.55%). In 2022, Menard County's population declined by -0.52% Menard County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in Menard County's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Menard County's annual population growth rate averaged 1.55%. It averaged 0.04% throughout the 1980s, 0.93% throughout the 1990s, 0.26% throughout the 2000s, -0.27% throughout the 2010s, -0.71% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Menard County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Illinois and the nation. As the chart reveals, Menard County's average annual population growth led Illinois' average throughout the 1970s (1.55% vs. 0.34%), registered above Illinois' average throughout the 1980s (0.04% vs. -0.01%), registered above Illinois' average during the 1990s (0.93% vs. 0.80%), posted below Illinois' average throughout the 2000s (0.26% vs. 0.35%), fell below Illinois' average in the 2010s (-0.27% vs. 0.04%), and trailed Illinois' average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.71% vs. -0.70%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Menard County outgained the nation in the 1970s (1.55% vs. 1.10%), fell under the nation throughout the 1980s (0.04% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation during the 1990s (0.93% vs. 1.23%), trailed the nation in the 2000s (0.26% vs. 0.95%), posted below the nation in the 2010s (-0.27% vs. 0.74%), and trailed the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.71% vs. 0.31%).
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